Terrestrial Biodiversity Adaptation Research Network

Rosenzweig and co-authors use an exceptionally broad meta-analysis of the scientific literature on observed changes to physical and biological systems on Earth – showing 90% of all long-term data sets are consistent with effects predicted by global warming and associated impacts. In its broad approach and the data sets examined, it uses similar methods to that taken in the Working Group II (WGII) report of the IPCC 4th Assessment report, but for those who want the main facts without needing to wade through the many hundred pages of the official IPCC WGII report, this paper is a superb summary and update of the main impacts and adaptation for climate change. There are a couple of really interesting results. One is that the evidence for change in the expected direction if climate change was having an effect – that is, changes in physical (ice sheets, stream flow, coastal erosion etc.) and biological systems (timing of breeding events, shifting species ranges, population declines etc.) – is overwhelming. Around 90% of all reasonably long-term observations (more in some systems/regions) show changes consistent with global warming and associated effects. There is always considerable natural variability in the response of individual species, physical process and so on. Therefore, this level of concordance is really quite remarkable, and all the more so when we consider that there has been only ~0.75 degrees C of temperature change so far, yet the expectation for this century is four to nine times that amount. So these changes are only a minor portent of what is likely to come, especially if we continue on our carbon profligate pathway. The other interesting point is that some scientifically well-developed nations such as Australia are only very sparsely represented. In biological systems, for instance, there are 22 studies from Australia and a staggering 28 thousand from Europe (there are also relatively few from Asia, Africa and South America). This underscores the need for greater emphasis on data analysis and modelling for consistent attribution, rather than just warehousing and databasing reams of largely unused biophysical inventories.

Rosenzweig C, Karoly D, Vicarelli M, Neofotis P, Wu Q, Casassa G, Menzel A, Root TL, Estrella N, Seguin B, Tryjanowski P, Liu C, Rawlins S, Imeson A (2008) Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change. Nature 453:353-357, doi:10.1038/nature06937

From: South Australian Government, Premiers Climate Change Council, Expert Science Sub-Group